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15885Re: [gaiapc] Could oil demand peak in a few years?

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  • narguimbau@earthlink.net
    26 Dec, 2017

      The optimisticprojections call primarily for efficiency increases, whichcan be wiped out byincreased use of more efficient vehicles or coal generators, and of course inpeople turning to "efficient" gas-guzzling suvs. Everything is predicted to begin in2020, which just happens to be the year consumption MUST peak to meet the 2-degree limit.  Electric cars appear to be counted as "full wins," but the electricity for them will come primarily from fissil generators..  The companies are determined to burn everything they have and then some, and the banks will help them.   The shale  oil and gas has always been a losing proposition but has continued because of constant influx of investments coming apparently fromWall SSt-managedretirement accounts.  They are determined tomake fossil production keep on increasing because the GDP and oil production track eac other and because petrodollars insure consumer spending.  When you look at the flat or increasing oil comsumption over the last decade, it is remarkable because my prediction of a production cras starting in 2012 was shared by everyone - the military, World Bank, Petrobrazil and IEA staff, and then it didn't happen.  Part of it is explained by investment in uneconomical resources such as shale and tar which prior to around 2012 weren't expected to go economically, and part can be explained by pushing the existing resources to artificially exceed the Hubbard curve.  Same thing.So there are lots of questions about.projections of decreased production.  The industry wants to keep the trillion-tonne "budget" for allowed production because it is worth over $100 trillion for them.  Too much money for them to allow demand to shrink.


      But we shall see.


      On 12/25/2017 10:42 PM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
       
      I hope these projections are right.  Not sure that all the "renewable" alternatives are really renewable.

      Luis

      On Mon, Dec 25, 2017 at 6:30 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
       





      —————————————
      Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
      Voltaire (1770)



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