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15968Re: [gaiapc] Could oil demand peak in a few years?

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  • Helmut L
    Jan 2 9:59 AM

      IMO that Bloomberg article is the usual, uncritical (stupid: eg hydrogen, biofuels) HOT stuff, not worth the pixels it's using.
      We get electricity from the wall socket, right?
      Steve Kurtz noted correctly we're moving to coal, for electric power.
      But I don't believe in "if"s. Money cannot buy stuff that is no longer physically here (and now).
      Yet we can't move away from oil, feedstock for chemistry, agriculture, industry, production and distribution.
      TINA, for technical reasons.
      Ultimately, when EROEI gets below 5(?) percent, physical human power may be used to produce (convert) energy for vital services (for whom?), for a short time and as long as people are under control, at the beginning of the downslope/seneca cliff collapse.

      The comments and analysis by Steve Kopits were new to me, Helmut:

      "I [Jada] attended a biophysical economics conference in Vermont in 2013. (Don Chisholm may have been there, but we had not met yet.) Steve Kopits of the research firm Westwood-Douglas gave an energy analysis presentation based upon the proprietary research he had conducted recently. Among other things, it foretold the beginning of the 2014 oil price crash, though that was not the major conclusion of the study. He showed a stunning graph that showed a 10-fold increase in combined annual growth rate of capital expenditure for energy exploration and production from 2000 to about 2010, as compared to the preceding decade."
       
      "After the presentation, a professor quietly asked Kopits, "What would you say to some of us who are concerned about the total collapse of the system?" Kopits replied calmly, "The system has already collapsed. Collapse doesn't have to be dramatic, you know. It can be quite banal. Our entire industrial civilization is based upon a regime of cheap [i.e. high-EROI] energy that simply no longer exists.""
       
      "What impressed me the most was the fact that Kopits is a professional research analyst, not a scientist or an environmentalist. Major oil companies and others pay his firm big bucks for objective assessments based upon the best available data. As Kopits himself said, "We don't have the luxury of being political. We get paid to produce straight facts." "
       
      "As it pertains to discussion of collapse of this or that in this venue, I try to keep Kopits's value-free comment in mind: "collapse" is not something to be expected in the future, but an event we somehow fail to recognize has already happened and is proceeding apace. Nick says quibbling about "demand" is a content-free discussion. Maybe so."
       
      "But I submit that all discussion here about collapse as a future event is essentially content-free of present reality. (And any talk of energy substitution is especially meaningless, as there is no physical substitute for high-EROI petroleum.) Again, high-EROI energy ultimately backs the value of the debt-based medium of exchange we call "money." Energy is not a function of man-made financial capital; rather man-made capital is a function of energy. If Kopits was correct, the entire growth-dependent financial system -- dependent as it is on high-EROI petroleum energy -- stands like a tree long dead, awaiting only a strong breeze to blow it over."
       
      "By the way, I expect Nick is right about the IEA and EIA monkeying about with crude oil production definitions. On a year-to-year basis, crude + condensate production has stagnated suspiciously along the the so-called bumpy plateau, but to my knowledge never decreasing since its 2005 peak was correctly forecast by Kenneth Deffeyes, author of "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak.""
       
      https://www.clsau.com/member/download/files/190/clsau_ken0616.pdf
       
       [end of Jada's post]

      On Sunday, December 31, 2017 5:06 AM, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:
       
      "Would you say the same about food, water…? Demand is very simple: people offer to pay money for a good or service. If the food is lab grown meat or butchered livestock, it is still food. If coal is liquified and sold as a heating or transport fuel, it functions similarly as refined crude does. Substitutions will continue to occur (despite poor EROEI) because that’s what a majority of humans desire at this time. (demand) That theoretically could change. If electricity is deliverable at a competitive price, and electric transport and heat/cool technology is available at a price people are willing to pay, demand for oil products could be diverted somewhat. I wrote similarly in response to Jada ( market feedback), and haven’t read refutations, only predictions of dwindling supply in the future, which I agree with! Steve"

      Helmut@... Enjoy today
      www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
      www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

      Le 2 janv. 2018 04:47, "Jada Thacker jadathacker@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
       

      Thanks, Dave and Richard. The situation really does appear to be a conundrum, doesn't it? Buyers can't buy what they can't afford; producers can't continue to produce at a loss. Debt may allow this candle to burn at both ends...but only for a limited time.

      Jada


      On Monday, January 1, 2018 4:42 PM, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


       
      Thanks for this, Rick. He is a real pro. Note that he leaves open some variables, and doesn’t call for any fixed timetable for crashes. He does note the slower global economic growth (as of 4 years ago), and says that may not improve significantly.

      Steve 

      On Jan 1, 2018, at 5:03 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:



      Begin forwarded message:

      From: "David Hughes" <davehughes@...>
      Date: December 31, 2017 9:02:37 PM PST
      To: "'Richard Balfour'" <balfourarch@...>
      Subject: RE: [gaiapc] Could oil demand peak in a few years?

      Rick and Jada,
       
      Here’s a more recent presentation by Steve Kopits that may help with this discussion although still nearly 4 years old. He’s been pretty quiet of late.
       
      Dave
       
      From: Richard Balfour [mailto:balfourarch@...]  
      Sent: Sunday, December 31, 2017 1:07 PM
      To: pocc@...; Undisclosed-recipients:
      Subject: Fwd: [gaiapc] Could oil demand peak in a few years?
       
      see pdf slides at bottom
       
      Begin forwarded message:



       

      (snip)
      —————————————
      Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
      Voltaire (1770)



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