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Bardi: The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late

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  • Steve Kurtz
    Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification
    Message 1 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
      Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

      Steve




      —————————————
      Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
      Voltaire (1770)

    • Luis Gutierrez
      The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and
      Message 2 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
        The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

        The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
        Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
        http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

        EROI & EPBT
        In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
        Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
        https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

        Copy attached

        Luis

        On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
         

        Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

        Steve




        —————————————
        Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
        Voltaire (1770)


      • Don Chisholm
        Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again. Don ... -- Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again. Don On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis
        Message 3 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
          Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
          Don

          On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
           
          The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

          The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
          Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
          http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

          EROI & EPBT
          In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
          Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
          https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

          Copy attached

          Luis

          On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
           
          Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

          Steve




          —————————————
          Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
          Voltaire (1770)



          -- 
          
          
          
        • narguimbau@earthlink.net
          are you sure?  The sample epbt was 3, about right for solar but 10 times wind. ... are you sure?  The sample epbt was 3, about right for solar but 10 times
          Message 4 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017

            are you sure?  The sample epbt was 3, about right for solar but 10 times wind.


            On 12/11/2017 1:39 PM, Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc] wrote:
             

            Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
            Don

            On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
             
            The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

            The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
            Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
            http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

            EROI & EPBT
            In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
            Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
            https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

            Copy attached

            Luis

            On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
             
            Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

            Steve




            —————————————
            Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
            Voltaire (1770)



            -- 
            
            
            

          • Jada Thacker
            Yes, Don, nobody ever asks what happens when the wind turbines and the solar cells wear out (ditto nuclear). They could not have been built without fossil
            Message 5 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
              Yes, Don, nobody ever asks what happens when the wind turbines and the solar cells wear out (ditto nuclear). They could not have been built without fossil fuels. The question is not how much time it takes for the "renewables" to pay back the diverted fossil fuel energy investment required to produce them, but whether they can reproduce themselves in a non-fossil fuel future -- while generating enough energy to keep BAU (or even a realistically reduced BAU) humming. Given the EROI of "renewables," good luck with that.

              I put the word "renewable" in quotes because there is no such thing as renewable energy, as per the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Energy used is energy gone. There are indefinitely repeatable energy sources on this planet, but all are organic, thus courtesy of the sun. The first fact here is that fossil fuels are not endlessly repeatable. The second fact is that repeatable solar energy cannot reproduce the non-repeatable energy resources at current rates of use.

              It is said world population was about 1 billion in 1800, before non-repeatable fossil fuels overtook indefinitely repeatable solar energy as the primary source of human food supply. If this figure is correct, then (to be very generous) that's about the human carrying capacity of Earth once all the petroleum-manufactured, non-repeatable energy generators break. People are prone to take their eyes off the ball: technology does not create energy, it uses energy. But it can't use energy that no longer exists. 

              We are stranded on a life boat, using our last remaining emergency rations as bait to catch fish. Nobody wants to listen to the guy who foresees that the fish can't possibly provide as much nutrition as the emergency rations. In such a situation, it's obvious somebody -- maybe a lot of bodies -- must die for the rest to survive. And that's not anything anybody wants to hear. So they don't. 

              Jada 




              On Monday, December 11, 2017 12:40 PM, "Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


               
              Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
              Don

              On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
               
              The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

              The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
              Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
              http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

              EROI & EPBT
              In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
              Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
              https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

              Copy attached

              Luis

              On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
               
              Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

              Steve




              —————————————
              Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
              Voltaire (1770)



              -- 
              
              
              


            • Don Chisholm
              Jada, I m glad you chimed in.  I had just started to pen a comment but you covered it pretty well. While energy is a serous consideration for future well
              Message 6 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
                Jada, I'm glad you chimed in.  I had just started to pen a comment but you covered it pretty well. 
                While energy is a serous consideration for future well being, or not, it is only one element of the outstanding issues.
                Even if we had a magical source of energy "too cheap to measure" (once a promise of nuclear!), the bigger issue is the contrast between the nature of our paradigm of growth, and funny money system that is the source of control, compared to the fragile Gaian system that is getting ready to be the last at bat.

                On the positive side, I think that the EPBT (Energy PayBack Time) is significantly more useful that EROI when it comes to assessing flow energy.  (I agree that 'renewable energy' is not possible.)   Unlike fossil fuels, there is no end date on the usefulness of the energy capturing devise.
                Don 

                On 2017-12-11 9:46 PM, Jada Thacker jadathacker@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                 
                Yes, Don, nobody ever asks what happens when the wind turbines and the solar cells wear out (ditto nuclear). They could not have been built without fossil fuels. The question is not how much time it takes for the "renewables" to pay back the diverted fossil fuel energy investment required to produce them, but whether they can reproduce themselves in a non-fossil fuel future -- while generating enough energy to keep BAU (or even a realistically reduced BAU) humming. Given the EROI of "renewables," good luck with that.

                I put the word "renewable" in quotes because there is no such thing as renewable energy, as per the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Energy used is energy gone. There are indefinitely repeatable energy sources on this planet, but all are organic, thus courtesy of the sun. The first fact here is that fossil fuels are not endlessly repeatable. The second fact is that repeatable solar energy cannot reproduce the non-repeatable energy resources at current rates of use.

                It is said world population was about 1 billion in 1800, before non-repeatable fossil fuels overtook indefinitely repeatable solar energy as the primary source of human food supply. If this figure is correct, then (to be very generous) that's about the human carrying capacity of Earth once all the petroleum-manufactured, non-repeatable energy generators break. People are prone to take their eyes off the ball: technology does not create energy, it uses energy. But it can't use energy that no longer exists. 

                We are stranded on a life boat, using our last remaining emergency rations as bait to catch fish. Nobody wants to listen to the guy who foresees that the fish can't possibly provide as much nutrition as the emergency rations. In such a situation, it's obvious somebody -- maybe a lot of bodies -- must die for the rest to survive. And that's not anything anybody wants to hear. So they don't. 

                Jada 




                On Monday, December 11, 2017 12:40 PM, "Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


                 
                Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
                Don

                On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                 
                The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

                The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
                Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
                http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

                EROI & EPBT
                In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
                Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
                https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

                Copy attached

                Luis

                On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
                 
                Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

                Steve




                —————————————
                Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
                Voltaire (1770)



                -- 
                
                
                



                -- 
                
                
                
              • Jada Thacker
                Don, you said: Unlike fossil fuels, there is no end date on the usefulness of the energy capturing devise. I agree with you if you are referring to leaves
                Message 7 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017
                  Don, you said:

                  "Unlike fossil fuels, there is no end date on the usefulness of the energy capturing devise."

                  I agree with you if you are referring to leaves and photosynthesis. All other "energy capturing devices" have an end date if they use more energy than can be replaced by the sun.

                  Jada


                  On Monday, December 11, 2017 9:09 PM, "Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


                   
                  Jada, I'm glad you chimed in.  I had just started to pen a comment but you covered it pretty well. 
                  While energy is a serous consideration for future well being, or not, it is only one element of the outstanding issues.
                  Even if we had a magical source of energy "too cheap to measure" (once a promise of nuclear!), the bigger issue is the contrast between the nature of our paradigm of growth, and funny money system that is the source of control, compared to the fragile Gaian system that is getting ready to be the last at bat.

                  On the positive side, I think that the EPBT (Energy PayBack Time) is significantly more useful that EROI when it comes to assessing flow energy.  (I agree that 'renewable energy' is not possible.)   Unlike fossil fuels, there is no end date on the usefulness of the energy capturing devise.
                  Don 

                  On 2017-12-11 9:46 PM, Jada Thacker jadathacker@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                   
                  Yes, Don, nobody ever asks what happens when the wind turbines and the solar cells wear out (ditto nuclear). They could not have been built without fossil fuels. The question is not how much time it takes for the "renewables" to pay back the diverted fossil fuel energy investment required to produce them, but whether they can reproduce themselves in a non-fossil fuel future -- while generating enough energy to keep BAU (or even a realistically reduced BAU) humming. Given the EROI of "renewables," good luck with that.

                  I put the word "renewable" in quotes because there is no such thing as renewable energy, as per the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Energy used is energy gone. There are indefinitely repeatable energy sources on this planet, but all are organic, thus courtesy of the sun. The first fact here is that fossil fuels are not endlessly repeatable. The second fact is that repeatable solar energy cannot reproduce the non-repeatable energy resources at current rates of use.

                  It is said world population was about 1 billion in 1800, before non-repeatable fossil fuels overtook indefinitely repeatable solar energy as the primary source of human food supply. If this figure is correct, then (to be very generous) that's about the human carrying capacity of Earth once all the petroleum-manufactured, non-repeatable energy generators break. People are prone to take their eyes off the ball: technology does not create energy, it uses energy. But it can't use energy that no longer exists. 

                  We are stranded on a life boat, using our last remaining emergency rations as bait to catch fish. Nobody wants to listen to the guy who foresees that the fish can't possibly provide as much nutrition as the emergency rations. In such a situation, it's obvious somebody -- maybe a lot of bodies -- must die for the rest to survive. And that's not anything anybody wants to hear. So they don't. 

                  Jada 




                  On Monday, December 11, 2017 12:40 PM, "Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


                   
                  Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
                  Don

                  On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                   
                  The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

                  The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
                  Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
                  http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-energy-transition-too-little-too.html

                  EROI & EPBT
                  In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
                  Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
                  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-017-0031-2

                  Copy attached

                  Luis

                  On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
                   
                  Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

                  Steve




                  —————————————
                  Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
                  Voltaire (1770)



                  -- 
                  
                  
                  



                  -- 
                  
                  
                  


                • Helmut L
                  On Swiss TV a lady opined that it would take many centuries for CO2 levels to get down to pre-industrial ae levels, even if we stopped CO2 emissions today.
                  Message 8 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017

                    On Swiss TV a lady opined that it would take many centuries for CO2 levels to get down to pre-industrial ae  levels, even if we stopped CO2 emissions today.
                    And, as Steve wrote, CC is only one of the issues (pollution).
                    HL
                    www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                    www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                    Le 11 déc. 2017 16:01, "Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                     

                    The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

                    The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
                    Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
                    http://cassandralegacy. blogspot.com/2017/12/the- energy-transition-too-little- too.html

                    EROI & EPBT
                    In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
                    Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
                    https://link.springer.com/ article/10.1007/s41247-017- 0031-2

                    Copy attached

                    Luis

                    On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
                     

                    Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

                    Steve




                    —————————————
                    Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
                    Voltaire (1770)


                  • Helmut L
                    Jada, I share your opinion. Even if peiple woukd hear, there s no way to reduce our impact in an ordened way. If there was a way, we d still have poor
                    Message 9 of 9 , 11 Dec, 2017

                      Jada, I share your opinion. Even if peiple woukd hear, there's no way to reduce our impact in an ordened way. If there was a way, we'd still have poor survivers in a totally impoverished and polluted planet.

                      HL
                      www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                      www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                      Le 12 déc. 2017 03:50, "Jada Thacker jadathacker@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                       

                      Yes, Don, nobody ever asks what happens when the wind turbines and the solar cells wear out (ditto nuclear). They could not have been built without fossil fuels. The question is not how much time it takes for the "renewables" to pay back the diverted fossil fuel energy investment required to produce them, but whether they can reproduce themselves in a non-fossil fuel future -- while generating enough energy to keep BAU (or even a realistically reduced BAU) humming. Given the EROI of "renewables," good luck with that.

                      I put the word "renewable" in quotes because there is no such thing as renewable energy, as per the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Energy used is energy gone. There are indefinitely repeatable energy sources on this planet, but all are organic, thus courtesy of the sun. The first fact here is that fossil fuels are not endlessly repeatable. The second fact is that repeatable solar energy cannot reproduce the non-repeatable energy resources at current rates of use.

                      It is said world population was about 1 billion in 1800, before non-repeatable fossil fuels overtook indefinitely repeatable solar energy as the primary source of human food supply. If this figure is correct, then (to be very generous) that's about the human carrying capacity of Earth once all the petroleum-manufactured, non-repeatable energy generators break. People are prone to take their eyes off the ball: technology does not create energy, it uses energy. But it can't use energy that no longer exists. 

                      We are stranded on a life boat, using our last remaining emergency rations as bait to catch fish. Nobody wants to listen to the guy who foresees that the fish can't possibly provide as much nutrition as the emergency rations. In such a situation, it's obvious somebody -- maybe a lot of bodies -- must die for the rest to survive. And that's not anything anybody wants to hear. So they don't. 

                      Jada 




                      On Monday, December 11, 2017 12:40 PM, "Don Chisholm donchism@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> wrote:


                       
                      Yes, we hear the same story over and over and over again.
                      Don

                      On 2017-12-11 10:01 AM, Luis Gutierrez ltg4263@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                       
                      The bottom line is that, even with sacrifice and collaboration, EPBT cannot compensate for low EROI in the long term without significant population and consumption degrowth.

                      The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
                      Ugo Bardi, Cassandra's Legacy, 10 December 2017
                      http://cassandralegacy. blogspot.com/2017/12/the- energy-transition-too-little- too.html

                      EROI & EPBT
                      In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs
                      Ugo Bardi and Sgouris Sgouridis, Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 7 November 2017
                      https://link.springer.com/ article/10.1007/s41247-017- 0031-2

                      Copy attached

                      Luis

                      On Mon, Dec 11, 2017 at 8:24 AM, Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
                       
                      Seems humans keep finding ways to stretch out the timeline. Unfortunately, other weak links like  overpopulation, biodiversity decline, and toxification continue unabated.

                      Steve




                      —————————————
                      Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
                      Voltaire (1770)



                      -- 
                      
                      
                      


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