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Health Education and Welfare the Day after Rome falls.

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  • Richard Balfour
    Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other
    Message 1 of 6 , 21 Dec, 2017
      Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going. Great.  

      On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.

      As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.

      Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....

      Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?

      I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals.

      Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
      then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......

      This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
      r

      Richard Balfour  
      Strategic Planner
      • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

      7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
      Balfour Strategic Planning
      www.plancanada.com

      • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

      balfourarch@...











    • alpert@skil.org
      Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. My plan has no down slope. It has very rapid population decline
      Message 2 of 6 , 21 Dec, 2017
        Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. 

        My plan has no down slope.   
        It has very rapid population decline
        ~90 million a year for 80 years.
        If annual global birth equal 500,000 
        with nominal 90 million deaths by old age and accident
        gives a world population of 50 million circa 2100. 

        I am not saving any existing cities - 
        I see new  3 new cities (their total population sums 50 million. 
        They are supported by hydro at 96,000 KWH per person per year.  
        Each city is design to be sustainable.

        These cities do not need defense.  
         There is no outside enemy.  
        The excess population died of old age by 2100 
        And the existing population 
        has no reason to ruin the existing civilization 

        Richard has not read what I am proposing or 
        the design for its implementation or its maintenance. 
        and if you have his view of what I am proposing 
        you too ( like richard) are not going to vote for the 
        social contract that builds 
        these cities and puts the other components of my plan in place.

        I on the other hand 
        see existing and advancing overshoot
        causing a violence that will ruin everything
        including all the sustainable hamlet preparations. 

        So as you see for good reasons 
        Rich and I think the other is crazy.
        I think his plan won’t work and 
        he thinks my plan cannot be implemented. 

        We could both be right. 

        That does not mean there is no plan 
        to achieve at least some of our common objectives.

        I have contacted Rich directly and I hope 
        he can sit down at a electronic table with me and 
        and discuss our misinterpretations of the others ideas.

        Then we can rejoin this conversation 
        using  some concepts that we agree on. 

         it might be useful in facing the actual predicament. 

        jack

        ps I don’ want to keep beating you over the head
        with the plan I am proposing  but nothing I say
        in text will make any sense without it. 


        Jack Alpert      PhD   Director:
        Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory    http://www.skil.org
        (C) 913 708 2554      alpert@...     skype: SKILdog
        13617 W. 48th Street Shawnee, KS  66216




        On Dec 21, 2017, at 3:33 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


        Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going. Great.  

        On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.

        As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.

        Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....

        Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?

        I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals.

        Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
        then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......

        This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
        r

        Richard Balfour  
        Strategic Planner
        • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

        7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
        Balfour Strategic Planning
        www.plancanada.com

        • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

        balfourarch@...













      • howe@megalink.net
        Right on Jack! As you know, my analysis adds the gross consumption of U.S. gasoline at 400 gallons PER PERSON per year average. ( 10 b/p/y X 42 gal/bar.)
        Message 3 of 6 , 22 Dec, 2017
          Right on Jack!  
          As you know, my analysis adds the gross consumption of U.S. gasoline at 400 gallons PER PERSON per year average.  ( 10 b/p/y X 42 gal/bar.)  Unfortunately there are no answers other than NOT have any more children.
           
          I'm working on my ASPOS (Association for Study of Post-Oil Survival) project but doubt if any one would support or help.
          All the Peak Oilers( ASPO USA) hide in the shadows or defer to PCI Post Carbon Institute, which has moved to Oregon.
           
          I wish all this human energy would get organized.
           
          Happy Holidays.  It has been a terrible winter so far in Maine as locals burn through heating oil, at $2.30 per gallon, as expensive as gasoline!  Can't we have just a little "global Warming?  We use wood and electric back-up.
           
          John Howe
           
           
           

          From: "alpert@...' alpert@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...>
          Sent: Friday, December 22, 2017 1:23 AM
          To: "thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com" <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com>, "Members of GaiaPC GaiaPC" <gaiapc@...>, pocc@...
          Subject: [gaiapc] Re: [TGC] Health Education and Welfare the Day after Rome falls.
           
           

          Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. 

           
          My plan has no down slope.   
          It has very rapid population decline
          ~90 million a year for 80 years.
          If annual global birth equal 500,000 
          with nominal 90 million deaths by old age and accident
          gives a world population of 50 million circa 2100. 
           
          I am not saving any existing cities - 
          I see new  3 new cities (their total population sums 50 million. 
          They are supported by hydro at 96,000 KWH per person per year.  
          Each city is design to be sustainable.
           
          These cities do not need defense.  
           There is no outside enemy.  
          The excess population died of old age by 2100 
          And the existing population 
          has no reason to ruin the existing civilization 
           
          Richard has not read what I am proposing or 
          the design for its implementation or its maintenance. 
          and if you have his view of what I am proposing 
          you too ( like richard) are not going to vote for the 
          social contract that builds 
          these cities and puts the other components of my plan in place.
           
          I on the other hand 
          see existing and advancing overshoot
          causing a violence that will ruin everything
          including all the sustainable hamlet preparations. 
           
          So as you see for good reasons 
          Rich and I think the other is crazy.
          I think his plan won’t work and 
          he thinks my plan cannot be implemented. 
           
          We could both be right. 
           
          That does not mean there is no plan 
          to achieve at least some of our common objectives.
           
          I have contacted Rich directly and I hope 
          he can sit down at a electronic table with me and 
          and discuss our misinterpretations of the others ideas.
           
          Then we can rejoin this conversation 
          using  some concepts that we agree on. 
           
           it might be useful in facing the actual predicament. 
           
          jack
           
          ps I don’ want to keep beating you over the head
          with the plan I am proposing  but nothing I say
          in text will make any sense without it. 
           
           
          Jack Alpert      PhD   Director:
          Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory    http://www.skil.org
          (C) 913 708 2554      alpert@...     skype: SKILdog
          13617 W. 48th Street Shawnee, KS  66216


           
           
          On Dec 21, 2017, at 3:33 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
           
           
          Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going.. Great.  
           
          On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.
           
          As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.
           
          Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....
           
          Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?
           
          I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals..
           
          Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
          then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......
           
          This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
          r
           
          Richard Balfour  
          Strategic Planner
          • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

          7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
          Balfour Strategic Planning
          www.plancanada.com

          • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

          balfourarch@...









           
           
           
           
           

           

        • Karl S North
          My metaphoric scenario for the cities, courtesy of Jim Kunstler s 2017 Year in Review THE EGGPLANT
          Message 4 of 6 , 22 Dec, 2017
            My metaphoric scenario for the cities, courtesy of Jim Kunstler's 2017 Year in Review


            THE EGGPLANT THAT ATE CHICAGO (Norman Greenbaum) Dr. West's Medicine Show & Junk BandYou'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, For he may eat your city soon. You'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, If he's still hungry, the whole country's doomed.He came from outer space, lookin' for somethin' to eat. He landed in Chicago. He thought Chicago was a treat. (It was sweet, it was just like suger)You'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, For he may eat your city soon (wacka-do, wacka-do, wacka-do) You'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, If he's still hungry, the whole country's doomed.kazoo soloHe came from outer space, lookin' for somethin' to eat. He landed in Chicago. He thought Chicago was a treat. (It was sweet, it was just like suger)You'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, For he may eat your city soon (wacka-do, wacka-do, wacka-do) You'd better watch out for the eggplant that ate Chicago, If he's still hungry, the whole country's doomed ("it's in trouble!") 
            If he's still hungry, the whole country's doomed  

            On Fri, Dec 22, 2017 at 9:14 AM, 'howe@...' howe@... [gaiapc] <gaiapc@...> wrote:
             

            Right on Jack!  
            As you know, my analysis adds the gross consumption of U.S. gasoline at 400 gallons PER PERSON per year average.  ( 10 b/p/y X 42 gal/bar.)  Unfortunately there are no answers other than NOT have any more children.
             
            I'm working on my ASPOS (Association for Study of Post-Oil Survival) project but doubt if any one would support or help.
            All the Peak Oilers( ASPO USA) hide in the shadows or defer to PCI Post Carbon Institute, which has moved to Oregon.
             
            I wish all this human energy would get organized.
             
            Happy Holidays.  It has been a terrible winter so far in Maine as locals burn through heating oil, at $2.30 per gallon, as expensive as gasoline!  Can't we have just a little "global Warming?  We use wood and electric back-up.
             
            John Howe
             
             
             

            From: "alpert@...' alpert@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...>
            Sent: Friday, December 22, 2017 1:23 AM
            To: "thegreatchange@yahoogroups. com" <thegreatchange@yahoogroups. com>, "Members of GaiaPC GaiaPC" <gaiapc@...>, pocc@...
            Subject: [gaiapc] Re: [TGC] Health Education and Welfare the Day after Rome falls.
             
             

            Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. 

             
            My plan has no down slope.   
            It has very rapid population decline
            ~90 million a year for 80 years.
            If annual global birth equal 500,000 
            with nominal 90 million deaths by old age and accident
            gives a world population of 50 million circa 2100. 
             
            I am not saving any existing cities - 
            I see new  3 new cities (their total population sums 50 million. 
            They are supported by hydro at 96,000 KWH per person per year.  
            Each city is design to be sustainable.
             
            These cities do not need defense.  
             There is no outside enemy.  
            The excess population died of old age by 2100 
            And the existing population 
            has no reason to ruin the existing civilization 
             
            Richard has not read what I am proposing or 
            the design for its implementation or its maintenance. 
            and if you have his view of what I am proposing 
            you too ( like richard) are not going to vote for the 
            social contract that builds 
            these cities and puts the other components of my plan in place.
             
            I on the other hand 
            see existing and advancing overshoot
            causing a violence that will ruin everything
            including all the sustainable hamlet preparations. 
             
            So as you see for good reasons 
            Rich and I think the other is crazy.
            I think his plan won’t work and 
            he thinks my plan cannot be implemented. 
             
            We could both be right. 
             
            That does not mean there is no plan 
            to achieve at least some of our common objectives.
             
            I have contacted Rich directly and I hope 
            he can sit down at a electronic table with me and 
            and discuss our misinterpretations of the others ideas.
             
            Then we can rejoin this conversation 
            using  some concepts that we agree on. 
             
             it might be useful in facing the actual predicament. 
             
            jack
             
            ps I don’ want to keep beating you over the head
            with the plan I am proposing  but nothing I say
            in text will make any sense without it. 
             
             
            Jack Alpert      PhD   Director:
            Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory    http://www.skil.org
            (C) 913 708 2554      alpert@...     skype: SKILdog
            13617 W. 48th Street Shawnee, KS  66216


             
             
            On Dec 21, 2017, at 3:33 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups. com> wrote:
             
             
            Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going.. Great.  
             
            On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.
             
            As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.
             
            Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....
             
            Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?
             
            I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals..
             
            Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
            then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......
             
            This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
            r
             
            Richard Balfour  
            Strategic Planner
            • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

            7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
            Balfour Strategic Planning
            www.plancanada.com

            • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www. vancouverpeakoil.org

            balfourarch@...









             
             
             
             
             

             




            --
            Karl North -  http://karlnorth.com/
            "Pueblo que canta no morira" - Cuban saying
            "They only call it class warfare when we fight back" - Anon.
            "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
             —Saudi saying
          • Richard Balfour
            Jack NO we do not disagree and yes I know Jacks plan and the scenarios it is based upon. That said, so many avenues to cover, as in what if that scenario is
            Message 5 of 6 , 22 Dec, 2017
              Jack
              NO we do not disagree and yes I know Jacks plan and the scenarios it is based upon.  That said, so many avenues to cover, as in what if that scenario is not the right one and how to plan for the others, or do nothing.
              We certainly agree on the transition, the passing of culture to those uncertain futures. Education and continuity of civilization is key to any getting through the bottleneck.
              for instance, losing human knowledge, what use is studying coding when we will need a generation of young people learning to be genralists and also how to reverse engineer almost everything we take for granted, not how to open an Iphone but how to build a chain saw or how to treat sewage.... for example. There is nothing worse than having to  deal with a boatload of survivors with no skills......
              just saying, don't get mad because someone cannot focus on one of many maybes at this time

              r.

              On 2017-12-21, at 10:22 PM, 'alpert@...' alpert@... [gaiapc] wrote:

               

              Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. 


              My plan has no down slope.   
              It has very rapid population decline
              ~90 million a year for 80 years.
              If annual global birth equal 500,000 
              with nominal 90 million deaths by old age and accident
              gives a world population of 50 million circa 2100. 

              I am not saving any existing cities - 
              I see new  3 new cities (their total population sums 50 million. 
              They are supported by hydro at 96,000 KWH per person per year.  
              Each city is design to be sustainable.

              These cities do not need defense.  
               There is no outside enemy.  
              The excess population died of old age by 2100 
              And the existing population 
              has no reason to ruin the existing civilization 

              Richard has not read what I am proposing or 
              the design for its implementation or its maintenance. 
              and if you have his view of what I am proposing 
              you too ( like richard) are not going to vote for the 
              social contract that builds 
              these cities and puts the other components of my plan in place.

              I on the other hand 
              see existing and advancing overshoot
              causing a violence that will ruin everything
              including all the sustainable hamlet preparations. 

              So as you see for good reasons 
              Rich and I think the other is crazy.
              I think his plan won’t work and 
              he thinks my plan cannot be implemented. 

              We could both be right. 

              That does not mean there is no plan 
              to achieve at least some of our common objectives.

              I have contacted Rich directly and I hope 
              he can sit down at a electronic table with me and 
              and discuss our misinterpretations of the others ideas.

              Then we can rejoin this conversation 
              using  some concepts that we agree on. 

               it might be useful in facing the actual predicament. 

              jack

              ps I don’ want to keep beating you over the head
              with the plan I am proposing  but nothing I say
              in text will make any sense without it. 


              Jack Alpert      PhD   Director:
              Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory    http://www.skil.org
              (C) 913 708 2554      alpert@...     skype: SKILdog
              13617 W. 48th Street Shawnee, KS  66216




              On Dec 21, 2017, at 3:33 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


              Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going.. Great.  

              On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.

              As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.

              Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....

              Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?

              I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals..

              Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
              then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......

              This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
              r

              Richard Balfour  
              Strategic Planner
              • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

              7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
              Balfour Strategic Planning
              www.plancanada.com

              • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

              balfourarch@...















              Richard Balfour  
              Strategic Planner
              • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

              7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
              Balfour Strategic Planning
              www.plancanada.com

              • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

              balfourarch@...











            • Richard Balfour
              I know, I agree with the collapse and the slow downward spiral of education, that is the point. Counterpoint and foil. The extension of schooling is in fact a
              Message 6 of 6 , 24 Dec, 2017
                I know, I agree with the collapse and the slow downward spiral of education, that is the point. Counterpoint and foil. The extension of schooling is in fact a bit of BAU and solace to the new migrants, the issue is that resettlement is offering a bit of hope and build on it. As I have said, we look at all options, yes the continuity put forward is about maintaining culture  and civilization, not likely I admit. so the crit is deserved and correct. Still does not negate the possibility for somebody somewhere.  Of course not stated but implied is how much one has to do in a decentralized new economy; yes the cost of infrastructure is hard to see as affordable, which points out in another way how much we spend to do the same thing in the unsustainable cities we support for now.
                AS for Pol Pot, in 2007 a Vancouver newspaper wag after reading a review of SSP manual called me a benign member of the Kymer Rouge. 
                and yes, in some strategy and design delusion is involved.  That is part of the process.  Does one throw this away as we get more desperate?  That is a kind of censorship.
                So from the crit, going into print the preface and qualification will put in context. Then one can proceed to total mayhem and helplessness.  That was the point of the ssp war games, the Mad Max was always a given, no matter what degree of delusion, how does a person find community to get past the bottleneck. To offer half solutions are easy, to offer a full platter once can pick from is my goal, no matter how delusional, there are nuggets to polish?
                By the way, the school has discipline but not from a senior government which likely will not be around, under the Direct Democracy model it is a community run and adaptable to conditions, change to curriculum.  More practice than theory.  If you go into the first SSP slide sets, you will find the suggestions that schooling could disappear as we know it. If schooling is still important and can be sustained in a self sufficient community, what does it look like.   I did not intend to stumble into the education issues but looking at the issues around decentralization of cities, these things pop out.  

                Another little problem in radical out migration is in breeding.  On cbc radio this morning a man from an outpost of outer Clearwater in the northeren Rockies spoke of a hamlet of 15 families and how all folks were related.. Of course they were. Who to date in this small gene pool besides cousin sam or becky?

                In these areas it is hard to escape getting called crazy, delusional, dictator, etc  It makes one want to give up. No it doesn't.
                rick

                On 2017-12-23, at 8:30 PM, Cynthia Quilici cynthiaquilici@... [thegreatchange] wrote:

                 

                More to the point, Chris, who’s got the money/resources/energy to BUILD OUT all this alternative infrastructure (shaking head), much less shuffle the sheeple around into position ahead of “time” (whenever the “time comes") against their will? Only the Chinese appear to have anything like the political will to enforce arbitrary infrastructure and population shifts, and we all see how well that has gone so far. [On the rare occasions I talk to people about these things, I tell them I would be a “kinder, gentler Pol Pot”. And then they retreat away from me, slowly, cautious of turning their backs.]


                tl;dr: Richard and Jack are delusional. And I mean that in the nicest way!

                =====
                Professional Planners or Professional Thinkers of some sort, they appear to me to be thinking themselves entirely into a corner. 

                Richard talks about, "the HEW means and methods we need to carry on” .. "we NEED"!!.. which include grade 13 SCHOOLS! OMFG! Richard, you are really unclear on the concept here: most of us will be extremely fortunate if we have food in our bellies in ten years.. the young ones may well be out scavenging the last-remaining sparrows or grubs for the family meal. Whether that turns out to be an exaggeration or not, the days of having the most energetic among us rot in an industrial classroom supervised by doctrinaire government-licensed child-minders for thirteen years or more are extremely numbered. Think of the level of schooling most people ever got 200 years ago, and work backwards from there. We’re not going to be building any more bullshit government “health, education, and welfare” organizations.. that ship has long sailed. We need, instead, for our own well-being, to figure out **how quickest** to get out from under the unsupportable bloat of the existing ones before they kill us.  


                Jack wants to build out hydro-electric (destroying what little is left of remaining rivers?) in order to obtain electricity.. something else he assumes we NEED (for what, Jack? to power Segways or to run dialysis machines? to watch CNN or to connect on Facebook? for elevators and HVAC? or what??). Industrialized humans have effectively exploited electrical technology for not much more than 100 years. Previous civilizations—who produced works which shame us deeply today—did it all without electricity. Basing any kind of human “future” on electricity is ridiculous, full stop. Even if you could guarantee the supply somehow (you can’t), the things that use electricity are entirely too complicated for less-complex-societies-than-the-current-one to construct or maintain in the first place, unless you have a handy backyard vacuum machine for making light bulbs, for example, and that’s a simple process compared to most. The current life-cycles of electrical devices are getting shorter and shorter, and they are more and more unreliable as a result of design and of the various diminishing returns of which most of us are aware. (At the same time the wonderful “educational system” some people want to preserve has guaranteed that no kid knows how use a screwdriver or even how to write by hand,, which latter to me signals the predictable and irretrievable loss-of-complexity). 

                >>>**General News Flash**<<<
                 The existing structures we have—medical-industrial complex, education-industrial complex, the welfare state in general, grid or off-grid electricity, literacy—whether you like these things and want to keep them or not… they have all have only *hastened* our now-come-to-be-unappealing fate. 

                Over the Christmas break your assignment is to go read some Ivan Illich if you haven’t already. 

                This intellectual work has already been done for you.

                Richard: “Education and continuity of civilization is key..” 

                NO. 

                NO, IT IS NOT. 

                To knowingly (and I use that word with care) promote something which is toxic and parasitical is non-sensical. “Education and Civilization” are arguably what got us to this baleful point in the first place. Of course, civilization is “natural” to the extent that we are a part of “nature”, and to the extent that we are all just acting out our mindless energy-degradation roles, and so no one is At Fault.. but damn… I do get frustrated at times because *I think you guys should know better*! 

                If any humans survive in the middle term, it will be because they have been able to shrug Civilization off as too pricey. “Education and Civilization” are the fucking heroin, Richard.. these are the opiates that are killing us.

                You haven't grasped the level of violence and extraction that civilization-addiction demands: the piano with elephant-ivory and ebony keys, the violin with catgut strings, come to mind, and I could think of more examples all day long. The harmless-sounding “hydro-power” that Jack wants… Everything that is “civilized” is something that imposes a (strictly-speaking) unnecessary, but distinct, loss to the rest of the biosphere. “Civilization" is what Helmut L. sees as beautiful in his catbird seat: the urban-dystopia-with-nice-croissants-and-coffee. One may see it as order, but it is a kind of extreme dis-order, an imbalance that can only be maintained at an extremely heavy cost which is invisible to those at the center, where it seems balanced in some twisted way.

                Richard and Jack correctly fear the end of Industrial Civilization. A lot of us do, and with good personal reason. But it’s.. I don’t even know what word to use here.. amusing? … sad? … ironic?... to read them nattering on about their ideas for urgently constructing Civilization Version 2.0, their “plans” and their “proposals” (!!), as though what exists now wasn’t already the supposed result of brilliant planning from planners and academics just like them?  I’m scratching my head.  

                And while I agree that coding skills will soon be obsolete, anyone thinking they are going to “get through the bottleneck” because they "know how to build a chain saw”(!!?!??!!!!) is going to be in deep trouble. I really didn’t know an adult's disconnect from the physical world could that great. 

                Lastly, I can’t help but note the adolescent-guys-over-a-Risk-board (or Sim game) overtones.. that “we” are going to do this or that.. No, “we" are not. The energy to do any of that, even if  one wanted to, is leaving the system with every keystroke that one types.

                IT’S NOT UNDER YOUR CONTROL!
                It’s not under *any*body’s control!

                And anything you “do” .. any of these “schemes”... will only make things worse, as they replicate and perpetuate the same attitudes and demands as before (of which may not be able to rid ourselves.. I’m not blaming Jack or Richard as originating this problem, certainly). This pervasive idea *still!* that humans possess any kind of Control or Agency is an extreme fallacy which is hard to eradicate.


                But I love you guys anyway and wish you all a peaceful winter break to relax and re-group and move into the deeper reflections for which this darker time can offer space, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. 
                For the Southerners, party hearty mates…  you know, like it’s 1999!

                Raising a cup of cheer to this rag-tag band of misfits!
                -CQ
                ——


                On Dec 22, 2017, at 8:41 PM, Christopher Christie refugee2000@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                Richard recently note drying forests on the west coast of N America du to climat change. Jack’e plan says:

                All may not be gloom and doom for humankind. The hydro electric production system, without the energy expenditures used to make the dams, might continue to produce net energy for 400 years. And this net energy might be able to support a small population (50 million) at high enough technology to find another viable energy source after the existing hydro system fails.”


                Leaving aside the other problems, like the stubborn resistance of human behavior to change, how will the building of these dams and survival cities be able to keep up with a changing climate, assume that it doesn’t stabilize anytime soon? Is there any place that is a reliable sourc or hydropower?

                On Fri, Dec 22, 2017 at 12:33 PM Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
                 

                Jack

                NO we do not disagree and yes I know Jacks plan and the scenarios it is based upon.  That said, so many avenues to cover, as in what if that scenario is not the right one and how to plan for the others, or do nothing.
                We certainly agree on the transition, the passing of culture to those uncertain futures. Education and continuity of civilization is key to any getting through the bottleneck.
                for instance, losing human knowledge, what use is studying coding when we will need a generation of young people learning to be genralists and also how to reverse engineer almost everything we take for granted, not how to open an Iphone but how to build a chain saw or how to treat sewage.... for example. There is nothing worse than having to  deal with a boatload of survivors with no skills......
                just saying, don't get mad because someone cannot focus on one of many maybes at this time

                r.



                On 2017-12-21, at 10:22 PM, 'alpert@...' alpert@... [gaiapc] wrote:



                Richard is putting words in my mouth that are not contained the the written plan I proposed. 


                My plan has no down slope.   
                It has very rapid population decline
                ~90 million a year for 80 years.
                If annual global birth equal 500,000 
                with nominal 90 million deaths by old age and accident
                gives a world population of 50 million circa 2100. 

                I am not saving any existing cities - 
                I see new  3 new cities (their total population sums 50 million. 
                They are supported by hydro at 96,000 KWH per person per year.  
                Each city is design to be sustainable.

                These cities do not need defense.  
                 There is no outside enemy.  
                The excess population died of old age by 2100 
                And the existing population 
                has no reason to ruin the existing civilization 

                Richard has not read what I am proposing or 
                the design for its implementation or its maintenance. 
                and if you have his view of what I am proposing 
                you too ( like richard) are not going to vote for the 
                social contract that builds 
                these cities and puts the other components of my plan in place.

                I on the other hand 
                see existing and advancing overshoot
                causing a violence that will ruin everything
                including all the sustainable hamlet preparations. 

                So as you see for good reasons 
                Rich and I think the other is crazy.
                I think his plan won’t work and 
                he thinks my plan cannot be implemented. 

                We could both be right. 

                That does not mean there is no plan 
                to achieve at least some of our common objectives.

                I have contacted Rich directly and I hope 
                he can sit down at a electronic table with me and 
                and discuss our misinterpretations of the others ideas..

                Then we can rejoin this conversation 
                using  some concepts that we agree on. 

                 it might be useful in facing the actual predicament. 

                jack

                ps I don’ want to keep beating you over the head
                with the plan I am proposing  but nothing I say
                in text will make any sense without it. 


                Jack Alpert      PhD   Director:
                Stanford Knowledge Integration Laboratory    http://www.skil.org
                (C) 913 708 2554      alpert@...     skype: SKILdog
                13617 W. 48th Street Shawnee, KS  66216






                On Dec 21, 2017, at 3:33 PM, Richard Balfour balfourarch@... [thegreatchange] <thegreatchange@yahoogroups.com> wrote:




                Jack and I have a strong common concern in the protection of basic humanity and the best of culture on the downslope, people trying to be nice to each other and pass on the good stuff while striving to survive as conditions worsen.  Jack thinks the centres are so important that we have to find a way to keep them going... Great.  



                On the other hand out migration will happen, and create other areas of conflict. I am working on a way to approach this to also see if we can find patterns in adaptation to make for a smoother adjustment when it happens.  This is also a cry for help and for insight by the e-tank you are in. HEW are the first things to go on the downslope, ask any right wing think tank, they will make sure of it.

                As an illustration, a for instance, looking at new rural settlement from what we know people do already on the landscape in such situations and trying to apply patterns and policy, an example of farm forest rhizome (Vail) hamlets of subsistence to sustainable industry creates the antithesis of urban density.  This means a hamlet might have junior grades for school and middle schools in villages leave the last years of high school needing a central place for labs and such for maintaining sciences and such, to lessen the Dark Ages trends.  This model is not about housing, it is about farms, food, forest management to also allow for fire control and maintain natural habit; a difficult design pattern.

                Using what we can from Christaller, applied to this landscape, Hamlets have a 3 km diameter, villages a 20 km diameter or spacing between their centres, and a townsite centre a 30 km diameter, that townsite of say 25,0000 population and a grade 11 and 12 population of 500 to 700 or so. This is in a setting of coastal rain forest....

                Given a new pattern and less energy, the hamlet is walkable, the village can be bike and jitney but and still a daily visit possible, but busing kids to school in such a future covering an area of 900 sq km says no, the kids have to be housed, in dorms or barracks.   Practical in travel terms but now requiring some will and funding to do this, a public good to keep the culture going.  Think of 16 to 18 year old away from home.... they have to love it, it is an option.  Birth control is mandatory?



                I only raise this alternate image to reinforce Jacks concern in yet another possible future scenario, questioning how we maintain anything we take for granted in any context; new ways of working, thinking, and the shifts in how energy is used to maintain the higher goals..



                Here is where I get carried away and recommend that grade ten is in the bush, a Trek programme for everyone (my youngest daughter did this, fantastic experience),
                then two years of academics in the town, followed by a formal grade 13 for all which is a paid year of actual work in the field, a recruit year (yes a bit of boot camp).  This year can be fulfilled in terms between university years if such a thing still exists.  This year is a year of public service, a pay back to society, doing useful public works while training for what comes next.  Shifting jobs is to be encourage, to make more generalists.......

                This is for stimulating thoughts about Plan C options..... and about how to plan to maintain the HEW means and methods we need to carry on?
                r

                Richard Balfour  
                Strategic Planner
                • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

                7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
                Balfour Strategic Planning
                www.plancanada.com

                • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

                balfourarch@...















                Richard Balfour  
                Strategic Planner
                • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

                7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
                Balfour Strategic Planning
                www.plancanada.com

                • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil..org

                balfourarch@telus..net












                -- 




                Richard Balfour  
                Strategic Planner
                • SPORPORI Strategic Planning for Ocean Rise and Peak Oil Resettlement Institute

                7276 Denman Road Denman Island BC Canada V0R 1T0             250 335 0766
                Balfour Strategic Planning
                www.plancanada.com

                • Vancouver Peak Oil Executive www.vancouverpeakoil.org

                balfourarch@...











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