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Re: population

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  • Don Chisholm
    Thanks Ron, passing it on. Don
    Message 1 of 9 , 13 Nov, 2012
      Thanks Ron, passing it on.
      Don


      Ron Hart wrote:

      --

      Ron Hart


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    • balfourarch
      Rat overcrowding does not translate to the human condition, this is old news. However other factors make it no better, including the alienation from high
      Message 2 of 9 , 13 Nov, 2012
        Rat overcrowding does not translate to the human condition, this is old news.
        However other factors make it no better, including the alienation from high density, irony of loss of community in contrast to the image.
        But the big FU factor is just plain logistics of end of any number of things makes the city unable to be serviced in perpetuity and the tripping points are lining up fast. Cities are not the solution Proposition One.  If not but when, or soon.
        Before failure of food supplies happens, and before climate kicks the teeth out each place, the false economy based on now soaring energy cost will cause internal mayhem and out migration.  In this case the Chinese population so newly arrived seem to be ahead of the curve as lack of old social safety net sends them back to the village farm.
        Or in Greece, where family farms on the islands and up north are still in the family.
        One of the commentators on this article says US citizens crowded but not at each others throats; well not til the gas ran out in NY.

        On the HOT scale of solutions, Paolo Solari used to dream up great urban solutions the size of mountains, on oceans, in space, and all exciting visual wonders and conceit, but unfortunately ignored EROI, and a little thing called food, as in real production and supply of. Current Alpha Cities are also just as divorced from reality. The Gaia optimist school prefers internal urban strife and culling to out migration.  All major planning for cities and nations is based on that story line by accident or design. Like the rats but not really, same end.

        Richard Balfour Architect & Co.
        Balfour & Associates • Strategic Planning
        Vancouver  6047310206

        National Coordinator, CCFI-ICBA
        Canadian Carbon Farming Initiative 
        Initiative Canadienne pour  le biochar en Agriculture 

        Vancouver Peak Oil Executive
        Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition

        On 2012.11.13, at 9:20 AM, Don Chisholm wrote:

         

        Thanks Ron, passing it on.
        Don


        Ron Hart wrote:


        --

        Ron Hart


        No virus found in this message.
        Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
        Version: 2013.0.2793 / Virus Database: 2629/5890 - Release Date: 11/12/12



      • Don Chisholm
        Well Rick, if I were in a limited space, even with ample food, but wall to wall people, I would not act rationally perhaps even become aggressive. At least I
        Message 3 of 9 , 14 Nov, 2012
          Well Rick, if I were in a limited space, even with ample food, but wall to wall people, I would not act rationally perhaps even become aggressive.  At least I hope I would.  I find it getting crowded now, in a rural setting.

          DonC

          balfourarch wrote:
           

          Rat overcrowding does not translate to the human condition, this is old news.

          However other factors make it no better, including the alienation from high density, irony of loss of community in contrast to the image.
          But the big FU factor is just plain logistics of end of any number of things makes the city unable to be serviced in perpetuity and the tripping points are lining up fast. Cities are not the solution Proposition One.  If not but when, or soon.
          Before failure of food supplies happens, and before climate kicks the teeth out each place, the false economy based on now soaring energy cost will cause internal mayhem and out migration.  In this case the Chinese population so newly arrived seem to be ahead of the curve as lack of old social safety net sends them back to the village farm.
          Or in Greece, where family farms on the islands and up north are still in the family.
          One of the commentators on this article says US citizens crowded but not at each others throats; well not til the gas ran out in NY.

          On the HOT scale of solutions, Paolo Solari used to dream up great urban solutions the size of mountains, on oceans, in space, and all exciting visual wonders and conceit, but unfortunately ignored EROI, and a little thing called food, as in real production and supply of. Current Alpha Cities are also just as divorced from reality. The Gaia optimist school prefers internal urban strife and culling to out migration.  All major planning for cities and nations is based on that story line by accident or design. Like the rats but not really, same end.

          Richard Balfour Architect & Co.
          Balfour & Associates • Strategic Planning
          Vancouver  6047310206

          National Coordinator, CCFI-ICBA
          Canadian Carbon Farming Initiative 
          Initiative Canadienne pour  le biochar en Agriculture 

          Vancouver Peak Oil Executive
          Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition

          On 2012.11.13, at 9:20 AM, Don Chisholm wrote:

           

          Thanks Ron, passing it on.
          Don


          Ron Hart wrote:


          --

          Ron Hart


          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2013.0.2793 / Virus Database: 2629/5890 - Release Date: 11/12/12



          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2013.0.2793 / Virus Database: 2629/5890 - Release Date: 11/12/12

      • balfourarch
        wow that tells a whole other story, doesn t it and you think the cities are only in a little trouble? Richard Balfour Architect & Co. Balfour & Associates •
        Message 4 of 9 , 14 Nov, 2012
          wow
          that tells a whole other story, doesn't it
          and you think the cities are only in a little trouble?

          Richard Balfour Architect & Co.
          Balfour & Associates • Strategic Planning
          Vancouver  6047310206

          National Coordinator, CCFI-ICBA
          Canadian Carbon Farming Initiative 
          Initiative Canadienne pour  le biochar en Agriculture 

          Vancouver Peak Oil Executive
          Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition

          On 2012.11.14, at 3:19 PM, Don Chisholm wrote:

           

          Well Rick, if I were in a limited space, even with ample food, but wall to wall people, I would not act rationally perhaps even become aggressive.  At least I hope I would.  I find it getting crowded now, in a rural setting.

          DonC

          balfourarch wrote:

           

          Rat overcrowding does not translate to the human condition, this is old news.

          However other factors make it no better, including the alienation from high density, irony of loss of community in contrast to the image.
          But the big FU factor is just plain logistics of end of any number of things makes the city unable to be serviced in perpetuity and the tripping points are lining up fast. Cities are not the solution Proposition One.  If not but when, or soon.
          Before failure of food supplies happens, and before climate kicks the teeth out each place, the false economy based on now soaring energy cost will cause internal mayhem and out migration.  In this case the Chinese population so newly arrived seem to be ahead of the curve as lack of old social safety net sends them back to the village farm.
          Or in Greece, where family farms on the islands and up north are still in the family.
          One of the commentators on this article says US citizens crowded but not at each others throats; well not til the gas ran out in NY.

          On the HOT scale of solutions, Paolo Solari used to dream up great urban solutions the size of mountains, on oceans, in space, and all exciting visual wonders and conceit, but unfortunately ignored EROI, and a little thing called food, as in real production and supply of. Current Alpha Cities are also just as divorced from reality. The Gaia optimist school prefers internal urban strife and culling to out migration.  All major planning for cities and nations is based on that story line by accident or design. Like the rats but not really, same end.

          Richard Balfour Architect & Co.
          Balfour & Associates • Strategic Planning
          Vancouver  6047310206

          National Coordinator, CCFI-ICBA
          Canadian Carbon Farming Initiative 
          Initiative Canadienne pour  le biochar en Agriculture 

          Vancouver Peak Oil Executive
          Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition

          On 2012.11.13, at 9:20 AM, Don Chisholm wrote:

           

          Thanks Ron, passing it on.
          Don


          Ron Hart wrote:


          --

          Ron Hart


          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2013.0.2793 / Virus Database: 2629/5890 - Release Date: 11/12/12



          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2013.0.2793 / Virus Database: 2629/5890 - Release Date: 11/12/12



        • Steve Kurtz
          I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged . Steve
          Message 5 of 9 , 11 Nov, 2017
            I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged .

            Steve



            From: John James Newsletter


            India to overtake China's population by 2022 - six years earlier than expected
            Nigeria will replace the US as the world's third most populous country by around 2050. Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 35 years. The current world population of 7.3 billion will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it predicts.
            UN World Population Prospects 2017
            The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates 
            5 Major Effects of Over-Population in India
            These are: 1. Population and Food Supply 2. Population and Unemployment 3. Population and the Burden of Education 4. Population and Housing and Health 5. Economic Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.



          • Helmut L
            Right, Steve, Those people make their extrapolations of trends, with no regards of environmental factors. HL www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem
            Message 6 of 9 , 11 Nov, 2017

              Right, Steve,
              Those people make their extrapolations of trends, with no regards of environmental factors.

              HL
              www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
              www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

              Le 11 nov. 2017 15:09, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
               

              I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged .

              Steve



              From: John James Newsletter


              India to overtake China's population by 2022 - six years earlier than expected
              Nigeria will replace the US as the world's third most populous country by around 2050. Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 35 years. The current world population of 7.3 billion will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it predicts.
              UN World Population Prospects 2017
              The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates 
              5 Major Effects of Over-Population in India
              These are: 1. Population and Food Supply 2. Population and Unemployment 3. Population and the Burden of Education 4. Population and Housing and Health 5. Economic Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.



            • narguimbau@earthlink.net
              Right.  Peak food is probably going to be about 2030 with a population around 8 billion at that time.  There are too many aquifers going dry, including
              Message 7 of 9 , 11 Nov, 2017

                Right.  "Peak food" is probably going to be about 2030 with a population around 8 billion at that time.  There are too many aquifers going dry, including those in India, China and the US, and while grain yields are going up, it is at a less-than-one-per-cent-per-year rate.  This was the conclusion of Limits to Growth, whose projections are being followed pretty much by the "real world" to date.  See also Arguimbau,  “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau310710.htm, in which I failed to take into account probable effects og global warming because they were less clear at the time than they are now..  The powers that be will not permit "no growth" projections.


                On 11/11/2017 6:32 PM, Helmut L helmut.lubbers@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                 

                Right, Steve,
                Those people make their extrapolations of trends, with no regards of environmental factors.

                HL
                www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                Le 11 nov. 2017 15:09, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                  “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau310710.htm. S
                I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged .

                Steve



                From: John James Newsletter


                India to overtake China's population by 2022 - six years earlier than expected
                Nigeria will replace the US as the world's third most populous country by around 2050. Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 35 years. The current world population of 7.3 billion will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it predicts.
                UN World Population Prospects 2017
                The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates 
                5 Major Effects of Over-Population in India
                These are: 1. Population and Food Supply 2. Population and Unemployment 3. Population and the Burden of Education 4. Population and Housing and Health 5. Economic Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.




              • Helmut L
                Yes, and I think around that year we ll have peak population. Compare the graphs further down at http://www.ecoglobe.ch/basics/e/index.htm . HL
                Message 8 of 9 , 12 Nov, 2017

                  Yes, and I think around that year we'll have peak population. Compare the graphs further down at http://www.ecoglobe.ch/basics/e/index.htm .

                  HL
                  www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                  www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                  Le 12 nov. 2017 01:45, "'narguimbau@...' narguimbau@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                   

                  Right.  "Peak food" is probably going to be about 2030 with a population around 8 billion at that time.  There are too many aquifers going dry, including those in India, China and the US, and while grain yields are going up, it is at a less-than-one-per-cent-per- year rate.  This was the conclusion of Limits to Growth, whose projections are being followed pretty much by the "real world" to date.  See also Arguimbau,  “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www. countercurrents.org/ arguimbau310710.htm, in which I failed to take into account probable effects og global warming because they were less clear at the time than they are now..  The powers that be will not permit "no growth" projections.


                  On 11/11/2017 6:32 PM, Helmut L helmut.lubbers@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                   

                  Right, Steve,
                  Those people make their extrapolations of trends, with no regards of environmental factors.

                  HL
                  www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                  www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                  Le 11 nov. 2017 15:09, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                    “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www. countercurrents.org/ arguimbau310710.htm. S
                  I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged .

                  Steve



                  From: John James Newsletter


                  India to overtake China's population by 2022 - six years earlier than expected
                  Nigeria will replace the US as the world's third most populous country by around 2050. Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 35 years. The current world population of 7.3 billion will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it predicts.
                  UN World Population Prospects 2017
                  The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates 
                  5 Major Effects of Over-Population in India
                  These are: 1. Population and Food Supply 2. Population and Unemployment 3. Population and the Burden of Education 4. Population and Housing and Health 5. Economic Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.




                • Don Chisholm
                  Nice article Nick! It puts the green revolution into perspective! Don On 2017-11-11 7:45 PM, narguimbau@earthlink.net ... -- Nice article Nick! It puts the
                  Message 9 of 9 , 12 Nov, 2017
                    Nice article Nick!
                    It puts the 'green revolution' into perspective!
                    Don

                    On 2017-11-11 7:45 PM, 'narguimbau@...' narguimbau@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                     

                    Right.  "Peak food" is probably going to be about 2030 with a population around 8 billion at that time.  There are too many aquifers going dry, including those in India, China and the US, and while grain yields are going up, it is at a less-than-one-per-cent-per-year rate.  This was the conclusion of Limits to Growth, whose projections are being followed pretty much by the "real world" to date.  See also Arguimbau,  “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau310710.htm, in which I failed to take into account probable effects og global warming because they were less clear at the time than they are now..  The powers that be will not permit "no growth" projections.


                    On 11/11/2017 6:32 PM, Helmut L helmut.lubbers@... [gaiapc] wrote:
                     

                    Right, Steve,
                    Those people make their extrapolations of trends, with no regards of environmental factors.

                    HL
                    www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios
                    www.ecoglobe.ch/requiem

                    Le 11 nov. 2017 15:09, "Steve Kurtz kurtzs@... [gaiapc]" <gaiapc@...> a écrit :
                      “Peak Food: Can Another Green Revolution Save Us?”. http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau310710.htm. S
                    I suspect these figures are underestimating increasing mortality and decreasing longevity amongst the vast majority of unlucky and underprivileged .

                    Steve



                    From: John James Newsletter


                    India to overtake China's population by 2022 - six years earlier than expected
                    Nigeria will replace the US as the world's third most populous country by around 2050. Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 35 years. The current world population of 7.3 billion will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it predicts.
                    UN World Population Prospects 2017
                    The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates 
                    5 Major Effects of Over-Population in India
                    These are: 1. Population and Food Supply 2. Population and Unemployment 3. Population and the Burden of Education 4. Population and Housing and Health 5. Economic Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.





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